Lance Rosen 'Nightmare Scenario' from Facebook
The Nightmare Scenario– Trump’s Demand For Treason Charges Against Obama Is A Possible Trigger For Civil War
Introduction–
Beginning in 2018, my wife Martha Rosen and I began discussing the very real prospect that Donald Trump would refuse to leave office and relinquish power if he lost the 2020 elections. Over a two year period we researched and documented what forces he might bring to bear in order to achieve that end, and the various scenarios for how he’d go about it.
There were others who had similar concerns, but they were largely focused on election security. We were on a different track, which was that of preempting a Trump-led insurrection. His open endorsement of the Charlottesville Nazi rally in the Summer of 2017 was a gamechanging event which was indictative of his plans, as were his pardons for convicted war criminals in our military. He was building a private army.
That work culminated in a 12 part 45 page special report which we released in installments on Facebook in the Summer of, 2020, which we both printed in hard copy and electronic form, then published and distributed to political leaders, civil rights organizations, and public figures with ties to our national security apparatus.
The title Was “Trump’s Really Fine People….Nazis, Secessionists, Separatists, Militias, And Boogaloos— Russia’s Fifth Column To Disrupt The Elections.” Here is a short quote from the introduction:
[“Our biggest problem is the abject fear our people and leadership have of going into the very “dark places” of Trump’s mind to consider what he is actually capable of doing in order to keep power. ….
…What is not being stated emphatically enough is the possibility that Trump will try to disrupt the election or seek to cancel it by unleashing an armed rebellion against the United States. He might try destroying the government if he loses by calling forth his hard core, heavily armed support base on the extreme right. This could explode as a violent resistance to an incoming Biden/Harris government. The same forces which have been identified by state and local law enforcement and US intelligence over recent years as the single most dangerous terrorist threat to the United States, meaning domestic terrorism, are the hardcore underground of militias, Neo-Nazis, separatists, Confederacy sympathizing rebels, Boogaloo Bois and Proud Boys, and Armageddonists. This network of domestic terrorists is and has been protected and enabled by corrupt elements of US law enforcement, from the DHS down to the county sheriffs, government agents, and people who have been infiltrated into the US Military for combat training and networking. If there were an armed rebellion, these are the forces that would be in the forefront leading it.
…Our greatest vulnerability to this threat is the degree to which Americans are still in a state of denial regarding the lengths to which Trump and his followers will go to wreck the election. We are not adequately prepared for this.”]
This report, released in its completed form in August of 2020, accurately forewarned of the events leading up to what we now refer to as Jaunary 6th, six months in advance. It was not just us giving voice to a bad feeling we had. We spotlighted the individuals, political and terrorist networks, and the motivations of those behind it. We wrote about the little known role of Vladimir Putin in steering the US white supremacist movement in both the US and Europe that served as his asymmetic election interference operation, one which in its scale superceded what was done through Russian cyber crimes and disinformation, in my view.
Our track record of analysis on strategic matters related to the Trump-Putin partnership are our “credentials.” Martha and I lived in this political world for more than four decades, therefore it would be a mistake to blow off our assessments on this as either a “nothingburger” or hysteria.
We are first going to state incontrovertible facts. Then we will make some assertions based upon those facts. And we will address the many thoughts which people will have in reaction.
Our purpose is to take preemptive action to disrupt Trump’s scenario, not to “go on the record” with a horrible scary prediction so that when these events do unfold we are vindicated and made to look like geniuses. People can either work with us on this or not. But no one should think for a minute that I even want to be writing about this, because I don’t.
Part 1- When They Say They Are Arresting President Obama For Treason, They Are Deadly Serious. A Fact Sheet.
- Tulsi Gabbard has made a criminal investigation referral to Attorney General Bondi and the DOJ to have former President Obama prosecuted for “treasonous conspiracy” in regards to the investigation of Russia’s 2016 election interference on behalf of Trump’s candidacy. These accusations are backed by “evidence” which is based upon willful lies, distortions, and Russian disinformation..
- The penalty for treason ranges from between 5 years imprisonment to death. Trump has already gone on the record stating that he favors the death penalty for treason in threats previously made against his former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley. Just to add an exclamation point, one of his first actions after being sworn in was to have General Milley’s physical security stripped.
- Trump has a history of fomenting stochastic terrorism, ie; inciting violence against his enemies which he can plausibly deny after the fact. Two years ago he “doxxed” the Obama family by posting their address on his platform “Truth Social,” resulting in an armed individual, who was a January 6th defendant, carrying weapons in his van and being intercepted outside Obama’s home by the Secret Service before a deadly incident could ensue.
When a search warrant was served and carried out at Mar-a-Lago before he was indicted on the stolen documents, Trump’s attacks on the FBI incited one of his supporters to attempt mass murder of FBI agents in Cincinnati by storming their offices. The assailant was shot and killed.
A similar incident occurred in Georgia months later, with the assailant jailed for assaulting an FBI agent.
A man in Mercer PA, north of Pittsburgh was jailed for two years after making serious threats to kill FBI agents in 2023.
Donald Trump’s attacks on then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi incited one of his QAnon-aligned supporters to carry out a home invasion and nearly successful murder attempt against her husband Paul. The assailant was later revealed to have thought the Speaker was also at home with him, meaning she was the likely primary target, since Paul Pelosi is a political non-actor.
There are several other examples too numerous to mention, even besides the violent attack on the Capitol leading to the deaths of five persons and hundreds injured, most of whom were Capitol police. Trump’s “dogwhistle” messaging and violent rhetoric are calculated and intentional. He gets away with it for the same reasons he has gotten away with everything else in his life of law-breaking. He is protected by the people who engineered his rise.
- Donald Trump’s decades long personal obsession and race-hatred for Barack Obama is so well documented that providing a source to establish it as fact is unnecessary. The life-long racial motivation driving his politics, handed down to him by his KKK-supporting father Fred, has been the hook through which he recruited his hard core MAGA cult. (beginning with his vile “birther” attack) Every other so-called issue he has campaigned on has been largely an add-on to that, spun out of the same Neo-Confederate white Christian nationalist cultural cesspool.
The incident referred to earlier involving Trump “doxxing” the Obama family, in conjunction with his vitriolic public statements, proves conclusively that Trump’s hatred is homicidal in character.
Trump’s posting of an AI video depicting Obama’s arrest last week should remove any lingering doubts about his motives, and further underline the seriousness of Trump’s threat to try him for treason.
- Barack Obama, as America’s first black and fairly successful two-term president, is a beloved figure, and a symbolic leader of the fight for equality for African-Americans, whose election was the greatest of all steps toward bringing about healing and reconciliation after four centuries of suffering under slavery and discrimination. He is the highest value target for Trump, MAGA, and their Ku Klux Klan heritage.
Part 2– What If Obama Is Indicted…Thinking The Unthinkable–
- Trump, Bondi, and Gabbard are not simply attempting to embroil Obama in a legal quagmire as a distraction from the Epstein affair. He is bent on vengeance, his obsessive hatred is pathological, and it has to be asked whether by pushing the treason narrative, as opposed to some contrived election interference case, they intend to incite physical violence against Obama’s person, whether or not there are indictments.
Given the heavily armed fanatics who are in Trump’s orbit, we cannot rule out some form of plot to bring harm to Obama or his family. If there is an indictment, I believe Trump will move to pull his Secret Service protection detail first thing, and Obama will need to hire private security. Trump has already done this with the children of President Biden, Ashley and Hunter. There is only one reason to strip someone’s physical security when there are documented real world credible threats to their safety. Do the math.
Who thinks that “they” would never let this happen, and who are the mythical “they?” If so, as a thought experiment, add that to the hundred page long list of “things we never thought he would do, try to do, or get away with” since he appeared on the political scene in 2015 and earlier, which he obviously went ahead and did.
- Some pundits argue that this move by Trump and Gabbard is purely performative and a distraction, not a serious threat, on the grounds that Obama is legally protected by last July’s SCOTUS ruling on official immunity. Others claim that Obama himself is not concerned because he simply laughed off Trump’s threat and hit the ignore button.
At the risk of being accused of gaslighting, those pundits are deeply delusional in their opinions. They are ignoring the history of this Roberts Court and its fascist judicial ringleaders, either out of fear or legalistic ideological idiocy.
Those presumed experts are not, nor have they ever had to deal with the kind of security problems which have surrounded this man and his family for the last two decades. Anyone who thinks he is not currently fully mobilized to protect himself legally and physically for what lies ahead, must be looking at too many Facebook memes and not reality.
The purpose behind the official immunity ruling was twofold. To clear out all Federal and state prosecutions and investigations of everything related to Trump’s insurrection, which would possibly have disqualified him from serving under the 14th Amendment. Secondly, to grant future President Donald Trump dictatorial powers, because the decision had already been made to rule in his favor if he lost the 2024 election and challenged the results in the courts. That was the quid pro quo for his appointees to get nominated to begin with! Had the 2020 election been a dead heat, how might Trump’s legal challenges have gone then? Who, I must ask, would argue otherwise?
Those arguing that the Supreme Court is bound by their immunity ruling to throw this case out are engaged in wishful thinking.
- When George Floyd was murdered by a racist cop in full view of the world, millions of people took to the streets in protest in a months long political explosion. That led to both peaceful demonstrations and also widespread violence. Much of the violence was started by right-wing provocateurs, vigilantes, racist local law enforcement, and federal troops. Secretive contractors were deployed by Trump to use “non-lethal force” against peaceful demonstrators in Portland and elsewhere. There were a handful of far left provocateurs, looters and rioters whose actions and numbers were exaggerated for effect by the White House and right-wing media. The overwhelming majority of demonstrators were peaceful and orderly. Just like the situation we have now in regard to the ICE protests.
Despite that fact, Trump tried to declare martial law under the 1807 Act in early June of 2020. That attempt was blocked by General Milley. Trump demanded on a conference call with the Governors that state law enforcement and Guard units should be deployed to shoot looters and rioters. They refused.
George Floyd was a non-descript man who happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, but he became a symbol for those who resisted racist oppression and police brutality, during the high point of reaction against the economic and covid policies of Donald Trump. Trump, the mentally ill narcissist, believed that the protests over Floyd’s murder were all about him, and acted on the basis of his most enraged and violent impulses. He was actually not wrong, much of the energy of the protests were in reaction to Trump’s policies..
What do you think will happen if and when Barack Obama is subjected to a retaliatory FBI raid at his home, one which likely employs excessive force in order to create a spectacle for his racist base, followed by dragging him to jail in restraints?
Who thinks the reaction will be peaceful and orderly? Well, it won’t be, and Trump, if he stays true to form in light of what he has done in LA and elsewhere, will almost certainly deploy the military in response. How will that go? Visualize Kent State-style massacres all over the US, or Bondi and Patel filling up detention camps with dissidents. If you think the 168 billion dollar Homeland Security budget and all of this new detention infrastructure going up, along with their mass hiring binge is just for deporting the “illegals,” think again.
Trump tried to declare a “Reichstag Fire” style state of emergency between May of 2020 and January of 2021 in order to consolidate a dictatorship. He was prevented from doing so by the so-called “adults in the room” back then. General Milley, Defense Secretary Esper, even marginally at one point William Barr, VP Mike Pence, and a small minority bloc within the House and Senate GOP caucuses, acted to defuse this scenario. They are now all gone, purged. There are no “adults” in this White House.
He will do everything and anything which he didn’t have the power to do in his first term. The Obama treason charges, if carried out, would serve as Donald Trump’s Hitler style “national emergency,” except that it will be met with the equivalent of 1000 “Watts Riots,” not peaceful demonstrations with signs, banners, and flowers.
- There are those who believe that this threat will fizzle when Trump soon dies, becomes incapacitated, or is removed under the 25th Amendment, and that we need not worry about this. It is true that his physical and cognitive health have been circling the drain, something about which I have written extensively. I think we should assume that he and his enablers will get on top of his physical condition in order to treat it, and that he will linger. Regardless, we should in every aspect prepare ahead of time for the worst case scenarios as a general principle. Cognitively and neurologically, he will continue on his current downward path.
It is wrong to assume that he will give up decision-making responsibilities and just be a figurehead with others calling all the shots. On the matters with which he is personally obsessed, ie; retribution, making money personally, and destroying America’s constitutional system of law and justice, he will use every weapon in his arsenal to enforce his will through threats of violence and blackmail. He is desperate to hang onto power, and knows that he is heading into his final days. This is what he has always done since it is his default setting, and all that his dementia is doing is tearing down any remaining filters, guardrails or cautionary behavior which he might have abided by previously.
While he will appear more dysfunctional over time, he will actually devolve into the full-blown psychopathic “Id” which encompasses his broad range of personality disorders. That devolution will be consciously exploited and stoked by the most malignant and influential people in his periphery, like Stephen Miller, Kash Patel, Erik Prince, Michael Flynn, Steve Bannon, and the Project 2025 string pullers who installed him. This I can speak to with authority, my wife and I having personally witnessed the head of a major international organization descend into deep dementia, and how the multifaceted scheming through shakespearian “palace politics” unfolded over years..
- Trump has stated his intention to arrest Mayors, Governors, State Attorney Generals, and local officials who obstruct his policies, emphatically mass deportations. He has stated in direct language that he personally hates all Democrats. (Except for John Fetterman) He intends to arrest and deport Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for Mayor of New York City if he wins. ICE Director Tom Homan has echoed Trump’s threats since November, saying that arresting his political opposition is Trump’s policy.
Many of you refused to believe that they meant it, or couldn’t possibly get away with it… even while they are actually charging and arresting sitting Congressmen, judges, city officials, detaining Senators by force in public, and demanding DOJ prosecutions of Democratic leaders. (Like Adam Schiff) This is what denial looks like.
There will definitely be a stage at which Trump and Bondi will arrest Mayors and Governors. If those officials order their municipal, state, or local law enforcement to help them resist these arrests, this could lead to an armed conflict between them and several of the hyped up Trump “yahoos” in masks currently being hired by ICE and DHS.
These new hires are being vetted for personal loyalty to Trump, just like Hitler’s Brownshirts, and several were involved directly or indirectly in supporting the January 6th insurrection. Those types have been given in effect a hunting license, and are being promised legal protections via pardons if they deploy lethal force in violation of the law.
Trump made an official statement three weeks ago in response to protests in LA authorizing ICE agents to use “any means necessary” to defend themselves from protesters or anyone impeding an arrest. That dangerous statement was relegated to the bottom of the page in your news feeds, because now it is part of the new normal.
If any of these situations deteriorate into exchanges of gunfire or other forms of conflict between local and federal authorities, this will be the basis for Trump invoking the 1807 Act, deploying the National Guard, and literally removing elected governments through issuing executive orders.
These types of events could be seen by future historians as the first shots fired in America’s second Civil War. 6. The last guardrail is the commanding officers and personnel of the US military. They are sworn to defend and protect our constitution, not to advance a personal retribution campaign through a nationwide bloodletting by a deranged power-hungry psychopath. In such a scenario where Obama is charged and arrested, followed by the predictable social explosions that will result, US Soldiers will be ordered to deploy, then shoot to kill. In order to honor their oaths, they will have to refuse to follow orders. Likewise if they are ordered into Democratic cities to conduct mass arrests and detentions in response to protests against Mayors and others being arrested. Whether or not there is sufficiently strong opposition to Trump’s plans still serving in positions of responsibility is an unknown “X-factor,” because soldiers are prohibited from speaking out on political matters. We are however aware of growing resistance which is taking small baby steps in trying to maintain their moral integrity and stay on mission. Also retired military are speaking out on behalf of those still on active duty who cannot, and this is a positive. We have reported on this development recently so it is substantial.
Conversely, there is a top down effort to impose a loyalty cult within the armed forces, modeled again on what the Nazis did, as exemplified by Trump’s obscene speech and appearance at Fort Bragg last month, where MAGA merchandise was hawked and attendees were vetted for their support for Trump.
- Those who still maintain faith in the justice system to protect us from what Trump intends to do are sadly misguided. Everything which Trump has done since taking office has been to whittle away at or demolish pre-existing settled law. The victories against him in court have been publicized, but have been mostly marginal and rearguard actions. Sitting at the top of the heap is the Supreme Court, currently in the grip of hard core members of the MAGA cult. To hope for victory on Trump’s home court is not a strategy which makes sense tactically or strategically.
Conclusion- Cornered Rat Trump’s Desperation And Rage Are Driving Events, Leading To Consequences We Cannot Imagine–
Under stressful and unprecedented circumstances there is a common error we make, which takes the form of making judgments about what others might do based upon projecting our own beliefs. This is pure folly, given that the person we are evaluating and those around him are not rational actors. Yet we continue trying to find rational motives (though not necessarily good ones) for why they do what they do. So long as we approach the questions of what Trump and his minions will do by trying to explain logically why they do it, it will result in a gigantic fail. Such as, “oh, all this hype about arresting Obama is a”distraction” from the Epstein Files.” An argument can be 100% false while still adhering to the rules of logic, which incidently is how professional liars and sophists make their living.
I must ask the pedagogical question, was Adolf Hitler’s mass slaughter of close to 1000 of his enemies and dissident Brownshirts in “The Night Of The Long Knives” a “distraction?” The Nazis had huge scandals too, such as Hitler secretly rearming Germany in violation of the Versailles Treaty. Was it a distraction from financial scandals involving Hitler’s henchmen stealing Art work and hoarding wealth? Was it that Hitler profiteered off of his book Mein Kampf as Chancellor by passing a decree that every German household should buy one? Was it about the Brownshirt’s leader Ernst Roehm being exposed as a pedophile (which he was) that they wanted to cover up? No, Hitler’s blood purge was done in furtherance of consolidating a dictatorship in order to launch the Holocaust, which had just been established as German policy under the Nuremberg Laws on race. That meant getting rid of the opposition leadership, and sure enough, Hitler did have former Chancellor Kurt von Schleicher and his wife arrested and shot that very night. Not exactly a distraction I think.
Who among my readers believes that Trump is oblivious or ignorant about Hitler’s rise to dictatorship and doesn’t emulate him? The only thing at issue in this discussion is the continuing stubborn belief by far too many people that what we are warning against “can’t happen here.”
This report is not intended to use scare tactics in order to get clicks, angryface and cryface emojis. I’m not making a prediction because I don’t do that. It is a strategic assessment which outlines one or more possible scenarios for what could happen, and how disaster can be averted.
Martha and I will reemphasize the themes I have addressed recently about what can and should be done.
We need peaceful protest and civil disobedience on large scale. Provocateurs being sent in to start violence have to be weeded out.
Strikes and boycotts which hurt Trump’s donors is a legitimate objective.
Grass roots campaigns targeting “obey in advance” Democrats to kick them in their collective asses will have an impact. Educationals on the topics of history, economics, science, and civics will be a vital component of this outreach and recruitment of candidates.
Mass recruitment of young activists through such campaigns will provide the energy, initiative and boldness which is currently lacking.
Elected officials at all levels must be contacted through every available channel, and challenged to take a stand, and state precisely what they will do in response to a possible indictment of Obama. If what they say sounds like bullshit, tell them we will find a candidate (maybe even you) to run against them.
The Democratic leadership must have their feet held to the fire. It is time to end Hakim Jeffries and Chuck Schumer’s “Phoney War” against Trump. Neville Chamberlain was a blot on world history. Tell them not to walk in his footsteps.
On that note, we will take a break. I anticipate a deluge of comments and questions, which we will take up. Thank you all sincerely for your engagement, passion, seriousness and attention spans if you’ve made it this far.
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